Forex Fundamental Analysis

Forex Weekly Outlook December 22-26

The US dollar enjoyed wide gains in the last full week before the holidays. Will the ride continue also on thin liquidity? GDP data from Canada and the US, US Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales, and unemployment claims are the major topics in Forex calendar. heck out these events on our weekly outlook.

Last week, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen switched the phrase “considerable time” with the word “patience” in referral to rate hikes. The move was made to calm markets fearing sharp policy shifts. However, she did sound hawkish at the press conference, being actually pleased with the fall in oil prices, content about the labor market and talking about rate hikes in 2015. In Europe, another comment from the ECB strengthened the notion that EZ QE is coming in January. The Australian dollar suffered once again and the yen resumed its falls, alongside all the others.

  1. Canadian GDP: Tuesday, 13:30. Canada’s economy expanded 0.4% in September after higher oil, gas and mining extraction, as well as manufacturing boosted growth. October’s reading was preceded by a 0.1% contraction in August. Since Canada is a major oil exporter, the Bank of Canada estimates that the slide in oil prices will reduce Canadian economic growth by 1/3 percentage points, somewhere between 2% and 2.5% in 2015. Poloz is also worried by household imbalances risking financial stability, leaving the door open for additional guidance in the future. Markets expect Canadian GDP to rise 0.1% in October.
  2. US Durable Goods Orders: Tuesday, 13:30. U.S. durable goods orders picked up in October beating expectations for a 0.4% fall. New orders rose by 0.4%, reaching $243.8 billion. Meanwhile, demand for manufactured goods, excluding transportation dropped 0.9% to $167.6 billion in October, after a 0.1% rise in the prior month. Analysts believe the decline suggests that business capital spending is weakening in Q4.The Fed expects GDP to slow to 2.5% in the fourth quarter. Long lasting product orders are expected to surge by 3%. While core orders are predicted to 3edge up 1.1%.
  3. US GDP: Tuesday, 13:30. On The second estimate of real gross domestic product for the third quarter of 2014 showed an annual rate increase of 3.9%, weaker than the 4.6% gain posted in the second quarter. However, this forecast was upwardly revised from the advance estimate of 3.5% released in October. Personal consumption expenditures and nonresidential fixed income investment increased more than expected, but export growth was slower than previously thought.  The final GDP release for the third quarter is expected to reach 4.3%.
  4. New Home Sales: Tuesday, 15:00.  Sales of new U.S. homes rose modestly in October, following a pickup in activity in the Midwest. New home sales increased 0.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 458,000. Economists expected a higher figure of 471,000. Sales of existing homes rose 1.5% in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.26 million, adding another positive sign that the housing market is recovering. Analysts exdpect new home sales to reach 461,000 in November.
  5.  US Unemployment Claims: Wednesday, 13:30. Fewer Americans filed claims for unemployment benefits last week, indicating increasing confidence among employers. The weekly unemployment claims dropped 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 289,000, the lowest level since late October. The four-week average dropped 750 to 298,750. In the first 11 months of this year, employers have added 2.65 million jobs, posting the best hiring since 1999. The number of new claims is expected to reach 291,000 this week.
  6. Haruhiko Kuroda speaks: Thursday, 3:45. BOE Governor Haruhiko Kuroda speaks in Tokyo.  Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda stated the bank will meet its 2% inflation target and continue  to increasing base money, or cash and deposits at the bank, at an annual pace of 80 trillion yen ($674 billion). Kuroda said Japan’s economy continues to recover moderately after the tax hike effect subsides.

Markets are set to grind to a halt on December 24th, Christmas Eve, remain completely closed on Christmas, the 25th and hardly see any activity on the 26th (Boxing Day).

That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies

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